Analysis of Relations in Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Example of CZK/EUR Exchange Rate
نویسندگان
چکیده
Analysis of Relations in Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Example CZK/EUR Exchange The aim the paper is to make an empirical verification both concepts validity uncovered interest rate parity, ex post and ante, using predicted exchange (for one month year) as a proxy variable for market expectations. We formulate difference between econometric procedures applied case stationary non-stationary time series. perform cointegration analysis error correction model, where PRIBOR rates actual expected development spot act endogenous variables. foreign EURIBOR (one-month one-year) considered exogenous our analysis, we do not assume influence Czech economy on this rate. have found that long-term relations within parity are determined by inflation-targeting policy pursued CNB since 1998. In short-term relations, determines domestic sensitive changes VIX global financial risk indicator. Growth indicator leads weakening koruna one-month horizon its retrospective strengthening over one-year horizon. Changes respond corrective way previous expectations, month- ly annual forecast horizons. depreciation (appreciation) ex-change associated with subsequent ko- runa This fact signals adaptability expectations monthly
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Politicka Ekonomie
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2336-8225', '0032-3233']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1322